TURBULENT TIMES: UNRAVELING THE IMPACT OF INSECURITY ON NIGERIA'S POLITICAL AND SOCIAL LANDSCAPE", FOCUSING ON THE EFFECTS OF DISPLACEMENT ON INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS) IN NIGERIA

Nigeria’s trajectory toward stability has been derailed by multi-dimensional insecurity, with violence permeating all six geopolitical zones. Communal clashes, terrorism, and resource-driven conflicts have displaced over 1.8 million people since 2009, creating one of Africa’s most acute humanitarian crises (ICG, 2022). The Boko Haram insurgency exemplifies this breakdown: targeting civilians, schools, and infrastructure, it has decimated livelihoods in the Northeast and entrenched cycles of displacement (Zenn, 2020; Onuoha & Oyewole, 2021). By 2016, 7.4 million Nigerians required urgent humanitarian assistance, with IDP camps in Borno and Yobe States showing systemic neglect—overcrowded, under-resourced, and increasingly reliant on strained host communities (OCHA, 2023).

This crisis extends beyond Northeast Nigeria. Banditry in the Northwest of Nigeria disrupts trade routes and displaces pastoralists, while farmer-herder clashes in the Middle Belt—fueled by resource scarcity—have displaced thousands (Oluwaseun et al., 2019; Okoli & Atelhe, 2020). In the South of Nigeria, militancy and separatist movements further fragment national cohesion. These intersecting threats reveal a nation grappling with governance deficits, economic inequality, and environmental stress, where displacement is both a symptom and catalyst of fragility (Nwankpa, 2021).

1.1.1 Economic and Social Fractures

Insecurity has unraveled Nigeria’s socio-economic fabric. Agriculture, employing 70% of the labor force, has shrunken in conflict zones: 30–40% of Northeast farmland lies fallow due to violence, exacerbating food shortages for 6.4 million people (Abdullahi et al., 2024). Displaced farmers, confined to camps, lose generational knowledge and assets, deepening dependency on erratic aid (OCHA, 2023).

Education systems are equally fractured. The 2014 abduction of 276 Chibok schoolgirls—and ongoing attacks on schools—have deprived 13 million children of education, disproportionately affecting girls (UNICEF, 2023; Plan International, 2023).

Healthcare infrastructure also reflects this decline: 72% of Yobe’s health facilities are nonfunctional, forcing IDPs to seek care in ill-equipped clinics (WHO, 2023). Maternal mortality rates in camps exceed national averages, while preventable diseases like cholera thrive in overcrowded settlements (MSF, 2023; Abdulazeez et al., 2022). These conditions trap displaced populations in cycles of poverty, with limited pathways to recovery.

1.1.2 Governance Vacuum and Political Erosion

State fragility underpins Nigeria’s insecurity crisis. Weak institutions and corruption have eroded public trust, enabling non-state actors like Boko Haram to impose parallel governance in ungoverned spaces (Ezeibe et al., 2022). The state’s inability to protect citizens or deliver services has normalized displacement as a survival strategy. For example, herder-farmer clashes in the Middle Belt—rooted in land disputes—are exacerbated by absent conflict resolution mechanisms, pushing communities into protracted displacement (Amnesty International, 2019).

This governance vacuum also strains Nigeria’s global standing. Perceived as high-risk, the country struggles to attract investment, while diplomatic partnerships focus narrowly on counterterrorism rather than structural reforms (Transparency International, 2023). Internally, the marginalization of IDPs from policymaking perpetuates their exclusion, leaving recovery efforts fragmented and underfunded (Bamidele & Adejumo, 2024).

1.1.3 Structural Drivers of Fragility

Four interconnected drivers sustain Nigeria’s insecurity and displacement crisis:

Economic Marginalization: Youth unemployment (33.3%) and income inequality fuel recruitment into armed groups. In the Northeast, 80% of Boko Haram members cite poverty as their primary motivator (Zenn, 2020).
Ethno-Religious Polarization: Competing claims to land, political power, and religious identity ignite violence in diverse regions like the Middle Belt, displacing 300,000 in 2018 alone (Amnesty International, 2019).
Environmental Degradation: Desertification and the shrinking of Lake Chad have displaced 2.5 million people, intensifying competition between farmers and herders (Oluwaseun et al., 2019).
Institutional Corruption: Misallocated security budgets and embezzled aid funds undermine state capacity, leaving IDPs without legal protection or durable solutions (Transparency International, 2023; HRW, 2023).

1.1.4 Humanitarian Fallout and Institutional Responses

The humanitarian sector operates in a paradox: while 70% of IDPs receive some aid, only 20% report consistent access to food or healthcare (NRC, 2023). Camps like Maiduguri’s Muna Garage exemplify systemic failures—families share tents, sanitation is inadequate, and gender-based violence is rampant (UN Women, 2022).

Government agencies like the Northeast Development Commission (NEDC) lack funding and coordination, prioritizing short-term relief over reintegration (Ezeibe et al., 2022).

International actors fill critical gaps: the UN’s 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan mobilized $1 billion for IDPs, yet programs often neglect mental health and livelihood restoration (UNDP, 2022). Community-led initiatives—such as traditional dispute resolution in Plateau State—demonstrate localized resilience but remain under-resourced (Dauda, 2023).

1.2 Objectives

This study seeks to unravel the multi-layered impacts of insurgency on Nigeria’s displaced populations, with a focus on actionable solutions for sustainable recovery.

1.2.1 Broad Objective

To assess the impact of insurgency on livelihood, healthcare, education, and food security among Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and vulnerable populations in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States, and to recommend actionable, context-specific solutions.

1.2.2 Specific Objectives

Examine the direct impacts of insurgency on displacement patterns, household stability, and community cohesion in Northeast Nigeria.
Explore the political and socio-economic dimensions of insecurity, including governance failures, ethno-religious tensions, and climate stressors, as they intersect with IDP vulnerabilities.
Assess the effectiveness of existing interventions by government agencies, NGOs, and international actors in addressing displacement-related challenges, identifying gaps in aid delivery, protection, and long-term reintegration.
Recommend evidence-based solutions that leverage community-driven governance, technology, and policy reforms to enhance equity, security, and resilience for IDPs.

1.3 Significance of the Study

This study bridges critical gaps in policy and practice, offering actionable insights for stakeholders invested in Nigeria’s stability:

For Policymakers:

Provides evidence to refine security strategies, emphasizing context-specific approaches to counterinsurgency and displacement management.
Highlights the need for inclusive policies that integrate IDPs into electoral processes, healthcare systems, and economic recovery programs.

For Humanitarian and Development Actors:

Identifies underutilized social resources (e.g., traditional leadership structures like Bulamas) and digital tools (e.g., blockchain for aid tracking) to improve service delivery.
Advocates for programs that address psychosocial trauma and gender-specific barriers, ensuring no one is left behind.

For Security Institutions:

Informs the design of territorial surveillance systems to prevent cross-border infiltration of violent actors.
Supports the Nigerian military and police in adopting human-rights-compliant strategies for camp security and IDP protection.

For Academia:

Contributes to literature on displacement in fragile states, emphasizing the cyclical relationship between insecurity, poverty, and exclusion.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter synthesizes recent scholarly and institutional analyses of insecurity-driven displacement in Nigeria, focusing on its socio-political repercussions for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). It reviews how conflict, governance failures, and environmental stressors compound vulnerabilities for displaced populations, while critiquing institutional and humanitarian responses.

2.1 Drivers of Displacement: Conflict, Climate, and Institutional Collapse

Contemporary research identifies three interconnected drivers of Nigeria’s displacement crisis:

2.1.1. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency Dynamics

The Boko Haram insurgency (2009–present) remains the primary catalyst of displacement in Northeast Nigeria. Recent studies (Zenn, 2020; Onuoha & Oyewole, 2021) emphasize how the group’s territorial control strategies—such as targeting farms, schools, and health facilities—systematically dismantle livelihoods, forcing communities into protracted displacement. Counterinsurgency operations by state and multinational forces have inadvertently worsened conditions: aerial bombardments and forced relocations have displaced an additional 500,000 people since 2016 (ICG, 2022). IDPs in garrison towns like Maiduguri face “double displacement,” trapped between insurgent violence and militarized containment.

2.1.2. Climate Pressures and Resource Conflict

Scholarship since 2015 (Oluwaseun et al., 2019; Okoli & Atelhe, 2020) links displacement in the Middle Belt to climate-driven resource competition. Desertification and erratic rainfall have reduced Lake Chad’s surface area by 90%, displacing 5 million agro-pastoralists. Migrating herders clash with sedentary farmers over dwindling land, escalating violence that displaced 300,000 in Benue State alone between 2016–2018 (Amnesty International, 2019). These conflicts, often mislabeled as “ethnic,” are increasingly framed as ecological crises requiring climate adaptation alongside conflict resolution (Ajene, 2023). In Yobe and Borno states, many IDPs reported abandoning their farms due to recurrent droughts and the encroachment of desert conditions (Oluwaseun et al., 2019). Shrinking water bodies and poor soil fertility have not only undermined food production but triggered renewed conflict over land and grazing routes (Aremu & Omotola, 2020), especially among agro-pastoralist communities near the Lake Chad Basin (UNEP, 2020).

2.1.3. State Fragility and Institutional Neglect

Nigeria’s weak governance architecture exacerbates displacement. Studies (Nwankpa, 2021; Ezeibe et al., 2022) critique the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and State Emergency Management Agencies (SEMAs) for politicizing aid and underfunding IDP camps. For example, 70% of NEMA’s 2022 budget allocated to logistics rather than direct assistance (Transparency International, 2023). This institutional failure normalizes present camp conditions where 85% of IDPs lack access to clean water and 60% report sexual exploitation in exchange for aid (HRW, 2023).

2.2 Socio-Economic Impacts: The IDP Vulnerability Trap

2.2.1 Livelihood Erosion and Aid Dependency

Precarious labor conditions define post-displacement survival. A 2023 survey of Borno IDPs found that 90% rely on informal daily labor, earning less than 1.50 USD/day—below Nigeria’s poverty line of 2.15USD/day (Abdullahi et al., 2024). Women face compounded barriers: cultural norms restrict mobility, limiting access to labor markets, while 40% of female IDPs report gender-based violence when seeking work (UN Women, 2022). Humanitarian aid, though critical, fosters dependency: 65% of households in Yobe camps have no income beyond food rations (OCHA, 2023).

2.2.2 Education Disruption and Intergenerational Poverty

Attacks on schools—over 1,400 destroyed in Northeast Nigeria since 2014 (UNICEF, 2023)—have displaced 1.3 million children. Girls are disproportionately affected: only 12% of displaced girls in Borno attend secondary school, compared to 28% of boys (Plan International, 2023). This gap reflects parental fears of abduction (e.g., Chibok girls) and early marriages as coping strategies (Idris, 2021).

2.2.3 Healthcare Access and Mortality Crises

IDPs experience mortality rates 3x higher than national averages (MSF, 2023). Maternal healthcare is particularly deficient: 75% of pregnancies in Borno camps occur without skilled birth attendants, contributing to a maternal mortality ratio of 1,500/100,000 live births—triple Nigeria’s national rate (WHO, 2023). Epidemiological studies attribute this to destroyed health infrastructure and aid delays: only 20% of IDP clinics have neonatal resuscitation equipment (Abdulazeez et al., 2022).

2.3 Political Marginalization and Human Rights Violations

2.3.1 Civic Exclusion and Voicelessness

IDPs are systematically excluded from political processes. A 2023 study of electoral participation (Bamidele & Adejumo, 2024) found that 95% of IDPs in Adamawa State lacked voter cards due to lost documentation and logistical barriers. This disenfranchisement entrenches their marginalization, as policymakers prioritize constituents with electoral influence (Ajaero et al., 2021).

2.3.2 Securitization and HUMAN Rights Abuses

Counterterrorism measures often violate IDP rights. The Nigerian military’s ‘screening’ processes detain thousands of displaced males as suspected insurgents without due process (Amnesty International, 2023). Camp militarization also restricts movement: 80% of IDPs in Banki Camp (Borno) cannot leave without military approval, effectively rendering them detainees (ICRC, 2022).

2.4 Humanitarian Responses: Gaps and Innovations

2.4.1 Limitations of Traditional Aid Models

Critics (Maiangwa & Uzodike, 2020; Pérouse de Montclos, 2022) argue that Nigeria’s humanitarian sector prioritizes short-term relief over sustainable solutions. Less than 5% of aid budgets target livelihood programs, perpetuating dependency. Coordination failures are rampant: in 2022, 30% of Yobe IDPs received duplicate food aid from NGOs while lacking access to healthcare (NRC, 2023).

2.4.2 Grassroots and Technological Innovations

Community-led initiatives offer promising alternatives. In Plateau State, displaced women’s cooperatives have revived traditional weaving, generating income while preserving cultural identity (Dauda, 2023). Digital tools also show potential: a 2021 pilot in Borno used blockchain to track aid delivery, reducing diversion rates by 40% (UNDP, 2022).

2.5 Conceptual Framework: Linking Insecurity to Systemic Deprivation

This review synthesizes findings into a conceptual model illustrating how insecurity-driven displacement triggers cycles of socio-political exclusion. Key pathways include:

Economic Shock: Loss of land/livelihoods → aid dependency → exploitation.
Political Erasure: Disenfranchisement → exclusion from policymaking → neglect.
Social Fragmentation: Destroyed networks → stigma in host communities → isolation.

The model argues that breaking these cycles requires integrated interventions addressing root causes (e.g., breaking systemic barriers (e.g., IDP voting rights).

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

Nearest neighbor analyses reveal households are spaced nearly 50 meters apart on average—a dispersion driven by ad hoc camp expansion and limited infrastructure. The Z-score, which measured the statistical significance of the spatial pattern, was found to be exceptionally high at 147490.30, providing strong evidence that the distribution of the households in the camps is not random but rather exhibits a clear dispersed spatial arrangement.

Table 1. Nearest neighborhood analysis of IDPs Camps in Borno and Yobe States.

Statistic

Value

Observed mean distance (m)

49.79

Expected mean distance (m)

0.01

Nearest neighbor index

3684.80

Number of points

438.00

Z-Score

147490.30

3.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

The study was conducted in two states in the northeast zone of Nigeria: Borno and Yobe. This region was selected due to its high levels of insurgency and its role as the epicenter of the country's internal displacement crisis. Alongside these security challenges, the zone has also recorded some of the highest rates of undernourishment, low income, and disease burden, second only to the northwest zone of Nigeria. This study focused specifically on formal IDP camps within Borno and Yobe States (Figure 1).

Figure 1A. Map of Nigeria showing IDP camps in Borno and Yobe State

3.1.1 BORNO STATE

Borno State is located at coordinates 11.00°N latitude and 13.00°E longitude, covering a total land area of 69,000 km². It is one of Nigeria's 36 states, bordered by the Republic of Chad to the northeast, Lake Chad to the north, and the Republic of Cameroon to the east. The state consists of 27 Local Government Areas (LGAs), with Maiduguri serving as its capital. Other major cities include Biu, Monguno, and Damboa.

Borno is predominantly characterized by a Savannah and semi-desert landscape, with notable features such as the Sambisa Forest and the Maiduguri Plains. According to the 2006 National Population Census, Borno's projected population was 4 million, though this figure fluctuates due to the ongoing insurgency and the resulting displacement. Despite these challenges, Borno is rich in human, natural, and material resources, making it a significant area both economically and culturally.

As of 2024, there are 69 formal IDP camps in Borno State, largely concentrated in Maiduguri Metropolitan Council, Jere, and Konduga, housing approximately 1.6 million displaced persons. Additionally, there are numerous informal settlements in rural areas that are difficult to access (Figure 2).

Borno State is home to several ethnic groups, including the Kanuri, Shuwa Arabs, Marghi, and Babur, with agriculture being the primary livelihood of rural populations. Common crops include maize, millets, sorghum, and groundnut, while livestock farming is centered around cattle, goats, and sheep. However, the Boko Haram insurgency has severely disrupted these activities, leading to roadblocks, insecurity, and a breakdown in educational and healthcare services.

The state is predominantly Muslim, with a sizable Christian population and many non-indigenous people from other parts of Nigeria and beyond, primarily traders, civil servants, and military personnel.

Figure 1B: Map of Borno State and Selected IDP camps in LGAs with most IDP camps concentrations

3.1.2 YOBE STATE

Yobe State, also part of Nigeria's northeastern region, covers a land area of 45,502 km². Located west of Borno State at coordinates 11.500°N latitude and 11.00°E longitude, Yobe shares borders with Gombe, Bauchi, and Zamfara states, as well as the Niger Republic to the north (Figure 1C). The state features a dry, semi-arid climate and large areas of savannah vegetation. Its landscape is predominantly flat, with the northern region increasingly prone to desertification. River Yobe provides essential water for agriculture and domestic use throughout the state.

Yobe has 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs), and its population was recorded at 2.3 million according to the 2006 National Population Census. Like Borno, the population has fluctuated due to insecurity and displacement. The primary ethnic groups in Yobe are the Kanuri, Fulani, Shuwa Arab, and Ngizim, many of whom depend on agriculture and pastoralism for their livelihoods. Millet, maize, cotton, and groundnut are the major crops, and cattle, sheep, and goats are the primary livestock.

As of 2024, Yobe State hosts approximately 200,000 IDPs, making it the second-most affected state in the region after Borno. The displacement crisis in Yobe is primarily the result of the Boko Haram insurgency, which has severely disrupted local economies, education systems, healthcare services, and general livelihoods.

Figure 1C: Map of Yobe State and Selected IDP camps in LGAs with most IDP camps concentrations

3.2 STUDY DESIGN:

This study employed a cross-sectional design using a mixed-method approach, which combined both quantitative and qualitative analyses to assess the impact of insurgency on internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Nigeria. The design was selected to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics faced by IDPs, capturing both numerical data and in-depth insights from various stakeholders.

The methodologies employed included:

Survey data collection: To gather quantitative data on the socio-economic and living conditions of IDPs.
Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): To capture qualitative data on the experiences, perceptions, and coping strategies of IDPs.
Statistical analyses: For processing and analyzing survey data to draw correlations and trends.
Spatial analyses: To map out the geographical distribution of IDPs and analyze the impact of location on access to services and vulnerability.
Text-based sentiment and thematic analyses: To analyze qualitative data from FGDs and open-ended survey responses, focusing on the emotional and thematic dimensions of displacement.

A multi-stage random sampling technique was utilized to select the sample respondents, following the method outlined by Holloway and Farrin (2012). In the first stage, two formal IDP camps—Elmiskin and Madinatu—were selected from Jere Local Government Area (LGA). Madinatu Camp, originally an informal IDP camp, was later assigned a SEMA representative for monitoring, in line with state policy requiring oversight of all IDP camps, regardless of their formal status. Additionally, Muna Elbadawy and Custom House camps, located in Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (Maiduguri LGA), were selected, as these two LGAs host the highest number of IDP camps in Borno State. Like Madinatu, Custom House Camp began as an informal camp but received some government coordination due to the policy of assigning SEMA representatives. In Yobe State, three IDP camps—Kasaisa, Abbari YBC, and Abujan Mala—were selected from Damaturu LGA. Kasaisa Camp, initially an informal settlement, was later integrated into the formal monitoring framework under the same state policy. This ensures that the IDPs in these camps receive oversight, although they may not have full government support or coordination like more established formal camps. This selection ensured geographical diversity in the sample.

3.3 STUDY POPULATION

The study population comprised IDPs residing in formal camps in Borno and Yobe States. The total population of IDPs in these states is approximately 1.6 million in Borno and 200,000 in Yobe, based on the most recent available data.

Respondents for the study included:

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): The core group of respondents, selected from the aforementioned camps.
Vulnerable persons: Including women, children, elderly, and those with special needs.
Persons with disabilities: A critical sub-group, given their heightened vulnerability in displacement settings.
Camp security personnel: To provide insight into the security dynamics within the camps.
Religious and community leaders (Bulamas): These individuals were included for their roles as trusted community figures and sources of support.
MDAs (Ministries, Departments, and Agencies): Key actors involved in the management of formal IDP camps and interventions.

The diverse study population was selected to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of insurgency on displaced populations and the response efforts from local and national actors.

3.4 SAMPLING AND SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION

Sample size was calculated using Cochran’s formula:

Where:

Z= Z-score for 95% confidence level (1.96)

p= estimated proportion of the IDPs population (0.5 for maximum variability)

e= margin of error (0.05)

= 384.16 ≈ 385

The sample population of 385 was determined as the minimum number of IDPs required to represent the study population of about 1,800,000 in Borno and Yobe in the ratio 88.9% to 11.1%.

Thus, the sample population for IDPs in:

Borno = 385 x 0.889 = 343

Yobe = 385 x 0.111 = 43

Data were collected from 376 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Borno State and 62 IDPs in Yobe State during the survey conducted in January 2025. A multi-stage cluster sampling method, as outlined by Donner and Klar (2000), was employed to select the respondents based on the concentration of IDP camps. The Local Government Areas (LGAs) selected in Borno State were Maiduguri and Jere (Figure 2), while the LGA selected from Yobe was Damaturu (Figure 3). The selected camps in Borno State were Elmiskin and Madinatu camps in Jere LGA, and Custom House and Muna Elbadawy camps in Maiduguri LGA (Figure 1). The camps in Yobe State included Kasaisa, Abbari YBC, and Abujan Mala, all situated within Damaturu LGA (Figure 2).

Inclusion Criteria:

MDAs involved in formal and informal IDP camps' management and interventions.
LGAs with a high concentration of IDP camps in the state.
IDPs residing in formal and informal camps.
Informed consent from participants.
Key security providers and relevant stakeholders.

3.5 Data Collection and Management

3.5.1 Survey Data Collection

Survey data were collected using KoboToolbox, an open-source tool designed for humanitarian data collection. A structured questionnaire was developed and administered to IDPs across seven camps—four in Borno State and three in Yobe State. The survey gathered information on the following key areas:

Demographics: Age, gender, household size, education levels.
Displacement History: Reasons for displacement, duration, and frequency.
Economic Status: Employment status, income sources, and financial security.
Food Security: Access to food, reliance on markets, and humanitarian aid.
Healthcare Access: Availability and quality of medical services.
Humanitarian Assistance: Types, sources, and frequency of aid received.

Data were transmitted daily to a central KoboToolbox server, where field supervisors reviewed entries for inconsistencies before validation. Rigorous data cleaning and quality control measures were employed to ensure accuracy before analysis.

3.5.2 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)

To complement the survey data, six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted with IDPs, community leaders, and humanitarian workers from the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA). The discussions explored:

The impact of displacement on IDPs' lives and livelihoods.
Perceptions of government interventions.
Challenges in accessing services.
Political awareness and participation.

The FGDs were audio-recorded, transcribed, and translated using the Google Translator API. The transcripts were further processed through text preprocessing techniques using Python-based Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools for analysis.

3.6 Data Analysis

3.6.1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Analysis

Descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations, were computed using Python (pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib, and Seaborn libraries). Cross-tabulations were used to compare IDPs across different locations. Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were applied to examine relationships between variables, while Chi-square tests assessed statistical associations. Factor analysis (Principal Component Analysis - PCA) using the factor analyzer package in Python identified latent variables influencing IDP experiences, such as economic insecurity, access to services, and displacement patterns. Multiple regression models implemented in Python's statsmodels library examined predictors of food insecurity and healthcare access.

3.6.2 Spatial Analysis

Geospatial data were analyzed using Python (geopandas, folium, PySAL) and QGIS v3.10.3 to map IDP settlements, access to services, and displacement clusters. Hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi) for food insecurity, Moran’s I test for spatial autocorrelation, and proximity analysis for healthcare accessibility were applied to the data.

3.6.3 Sentiment and Thematic Analysis

Text-based sentiment analysis was conducted using VADER (NLTK) in Python, categorizing IDP opinions on humanitarian aid and security conditions as positive, neutral, or negative. Thematic analysis was performed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) in Python (gensim, Scikit-learn) to extract dominant themes from FGD transcripts, while WordCloud visualizations were generated to provide insights into frequently mentioned topics.

3.7 Ethical Considerations

Informed consent was obtained from all participants, ensuring their voluntary participation in the study. Confidentiality was maintained by keeping responses anonymous. Ethical approval was secured from the relevant government authorities overseeing IDP camps, including the State Emergency Management Agencies (SEMA) of Borno and Yobe States. Copies of the approval letters are attached in the appendices (Appendices 1 and 2).

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS

4.1 Community-Driven Governance in IDP Camps

Internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Northeast Nigeria adopt a hybrid governance structure blending formal and informal systems. Camps are organized into clusters reflecting residents’ original communities, fostering a sense of continuity amid displacement. Each cluster elects four leaders (Bulamas) to represent distinct demographic groups: a Head Bulama overseeing administration and external coordination, a Youth Leader addressing young people’s needs, a Woman Leader advocating for gender-specific programs, and a Religious Leader mediating disputes and providing spiritual support.

At the camp level, an Overall Camp Leadership Team—comprising a Chairman, Youth Leader, Woman Leader, and Religious Leader—collaborates on security measures, organizing nightly patrols to protect residents. Even in formal camps with government security personnel, leadership teams remain active, compensating for dwindling official support. This decentralized structure highlights communities’ reliance on localized leadership to navigate displacement challenges, though resource constraints and overlapping roles occasionally strain effectiveness.

4.2 Demographic Realities and the Legacy of Displacement

The study surveyed 438 IDPs across seven camps in Borno and Yobe States (Table 1), regions bearing the brunt of Boko Haram’s insurgency. Borno—home to 1.6 million IDPs—accounted for the majority of respondents compared to Yobe State, which hosts about 200,000 IDPs.

Table 2. Distribution of the Insurgency IDPs Sample size population across Borno and Yobe States

Borno State

Yobe State

Total

Jere LGA

MMC LGA

Damaturu LGA

Respondents

Elmiskin camp

Madinatu camp

Custom House camp

Muna Elbadawy camp

Kasaisa camp

Abbari YBC camp

Abujan Maimala camp

Sample population

438

proportion (%)

21.5

4.8

4.6

100

4.2.1 Age and Gender Dynamics

4.2.1.1 Age distribution

Figures 1 and 2 show the demographic structure of the IDPs based on age categories IDP populations skew young, with 21–40-year-olds constituting the largest cohort, highlighting a predominantly young and middle-aged population. The elderly population (51 and above) is relatively small but present.

Figure 1. Age Distribution of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Respondents in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 2. Age Distribution of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) by State, Local Government Area (LGA), and Camp.

4.2.1.2 Gender distribution

Figure 3 presents an overview of the gender distribution of the IDPs in Borno and Yobe States. Women dominate all camp demographics (66.4% overall, Figure 3-4), a trend consistent across most sites except Yobe’s Kasaisa camp (Figure 5), where male dominate (71.4%).

Figure 3. Gender distribution of IDPs in Borno and Yobe States IDP camps.

Figure 4. Gender Distribution by State of the IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 5. Gender Distribution of IDPs by Camps in Borno and Yobe States

4.2.2 Family Structures and Education Gaps

4.2.2.1 Marital Status

Married individuals comprise 80–91% of respondents (Figure 6), indicating displacement predominantly affects family units. In Borno State, Jere LGA’s Custom House camp had 79.8% married, 6.4% divorced, 4.3% single, and 9.6% widowed. Muna Elbadawy camp showed a similar pattern with 80.9% married, 6.4% divorced, 4.3% single, and 8.5% widowed. In Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC), Elmiskin camp had 85.1% married, 6.4% divorced, 1.1% single, and 7.4% widowed. Madinatu camp recorded the highest proportion of married individuals (91.5%), with 1.1% single, 1.1% divorced, and 6.4% widowed. These trends suggest that displacement in Borno State primarily affected family units rather than individuals, reflecting collective migration responses to conflict.

Figure 6. Marital Status Distribution of IDPs Across Camps in Borno and Yobe States

In Yobe State, Abbari YBC camp had 81.0% married, 4.8% divorced, 0.0% single, and 14.3% widowed. Abujan Maimala had 80.0% married, 0.0% divorced, 5.0% single, and 15.0% widowed IDPs. Kasaisa camp had 85.7% married, 0.0% divorced, 4.8% single, and 9.5% widowed IDPs.

Overall, the predominance of married individuals across these camps highlights the family-centered nature of displacement, with household units moving together in response to conflict.

4.2.2.2 Household Size

This section presents the household size distribution of internally displaced persons (IDPs) across selected camps in Borno and Yobe States. It offers insight into family structures and living arrangements within displacement settings. This is essential for effective humanitarian planning, particularly regarding shelter, food distribution, and access to basic services.

Table 2 summarizes the household size characteristics of the surveyed population, with a diverse range of family sizes. The average household size was seven members, with a standard deviation of 2.8, indicating moderate variability. The smallest household size recorded was one member, while the largest was 24 members.

Table 3: Summary of Household Size in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States (January 2025)

Statistic

Value

count:

438

mean

7.2

std

2.8

min

25%

50%

75%

max

The distribution of household sizes, as shown in Figure 7, reveals that most IDPs live within extended family units, with six-member households being the most common across all surveyed camps. In Custom House camp, 23.4% of households had six members, 17.0% had five members and 14.9% had nine members. Similarly, in Muna Elbadawy camp, 27.7% of households had six members, with 14.9% having five, seven, or eight members. Elmiskin camp also followed this pattern, with 27.7% of households having six members and 13.8% having seven members.

Figure 7. Household Size Distribution Among IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

In Madinatu camp, five- and seven-member households were the most frequent, representing 23.4% and 24.5% of the sample, respectively. However, the camp also recorded larger households of 10 to 12 members, making up 9.6% of the sample population.

In Yobe State, large households were more prominent. At Abbari YBC camp, 28.6% of households had 10 or more members, including one household with 20 members. Similarly, Abujan Maimala camp recorded the largest household surveyed, with 24 members. Kasaisa camp exhibited a broader spread, with nearly 50% of households containing between eight and 12 members, reflecting a high proportion of extended family units.

Across all surveyed camps, household sizes predominantly fell between five and eight members, reflecting the tendency of displaced families to migrate together rather than as individuals. Notably, the presence of households with 10 or more members in every camp surveyed, particularly in Abbari YBC and Abujan Maimala camps, highlights serious challenges regarding shelter adequacy, food rationing, and access to essential services. Furthermore, while single-person households were rare, their existence in camps like Custom House and Madinatu may indicate unaccompanied individuals or widowed persons, suggesting a need for targeted social support.

4.2.2.3 Educational Status

Education levels remain critically low: Quranic schooling (68–95%, Figures 8–9) dominates, offering religious literacy but limited formal skills. Less than 7% attained secondary education, and tertiary education is nearly absent, reflecting systemic disruptions to schooling and long-term economic marginalization.

Figure 8. Educational Status of IDPs in Borno and Yobe States.

In Borno State, Custom House camp revealed that 91.5% of respondents had Quranic education, with only 4.3% having secondary education, 3.2% primary education, and 1.1% no education. Muna Elbadawy camp followed a similar pattern, with 68.1% having Quranic education, 17.0% primary education, 5.3% secondary education, and 9.6% no education. In MMC LGA, Elmiskin camp reported 69.1% Quranic education, 14.9% primary, 5.3% secondary, and 10.6% no education. Madinatu camp had 73.4% Quranic education, 16.0% primary, 6.4% secondary, and 4.3% no education. Notably, no respondents from these Borno State camps reported attaining tertiary education.

Figure 9. Educational Status of IDPs by Camps in Borno and Yobe States

In Yobe State, Abbari YBC camp showed 76.2% Quranic education, with small proportions of primary (9.5%), secondary (9.5%), and tertiary (4.8%) education. At Abujan Maimala camp, Quranic education dominated at 95.0%, with 5.0% having tertiary education, and no respondents reported primary or secondary education. Kasaisa camp reflected a similar trend, with 85.7% Quranic education, 9.5% primary, and 4.8% secondary education.

Displacement Histories and Drivers

Most Borno IDPs fled between 2013–2017 (Figure 10), during Boko Haram’s peak violence, resulting in protracted displacement nearing a decade. Yobe’s displacement timeline is more staggered, with some arrivals as recent as 2024, suggesting ongoing instability in peripheral conflict zones. Insurgency drove 100% of displacements (Figure 13), with flooding affecting a negligible minority (0.68%). The near-total attribution to conflict underscores the humanitarian sector’s focus on conflict-related trauma and the inadequacy of climate adaptation measures.

4.2.3 Displacement Histories and Drivers

4.2.3.1 Displacement dates And Causes

Most Borno IDPs fled between 2013–2017 (Figure 10), during Boko Haram’s peak violence, resulting in protracted displacement nearing a decade. Yobe’s displacement timeline is more staggered, with some arrivals as recent as 2024, suggesting ongoing instability in peripheral conflict zones. Insurgency drove 100% of displacements (Figure 11), with flooding affecting a negligible minority (0.68%). The near-total attribution to conflict underscores the humanitarian sector’s focus on conflict-related trauma and the inadequacy of climate adaptation measures.

Figure 10. Displacement Dates of IDPs by State, Local Government Area (LGA), and Camp (Survey Conducted in January 2025)

Figure 11. Causes of Displacement Among IDPs

4.2.3.2 Original Habitat Distribution

Figure 12 presents the distribution of the original habitat or places of first displacement of IDPs, offering a glimpse into the geographic origins of displacement across Borno and Yobe States. The chart reveals that the largest proportion of IDPs originated from Damboa, accounting for approximately 12% of the sample, followed closely by Maisandari (about 10%) and Mafa (8%). These areas were among the hardest hit by Boko Haram’s violent campaigns, leading to mass exoduses toward safer locations. Other notable origins include Kukawa (6%), Nayi Nawa (4%), and Buni Yadi (5%), reflecting the widespread nature of the conflict. Interestingly, a small percentage of IDPs reported displacement from Niger Republic and Cameroon, signaling the cross-border impact of the insurgency and the regional dimensions of forced migration. The relatively lower percentages from locations like Dalori, Gwoza, and Gamboru indicate that while displacement is widespread, the intensity and timing of attacks varied significantly across communities.

Figure 12: Original Habitat Distribution of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)

4.2.3.3 Multiple Displacement History

As shown in Figure 13, multiple displacement is a significant aspect of the IDP experience in the surveyed camps. The pie chart indicates that approximately 38% of IDPs reported experiencing multiple displacements, while 62% indicated that they had only been displaced once. This finding highlights the instability and ongoing threats faced by many displaced families, who, even after fleeing their homes, continue to face secondary displacements due to attacks on IDP camps, worsening living conditions, or eviction pressures. The high percentage of single-displacement cases may suggest that some IDPs have found relative stability within their current locations, though this does not necessarily imply improved living standards or sustainable reintegration.

Figure 13. Frequency of Single and Multiple Displacements among IDPs

4.3 Fractured Livelihoods and Systemic Deprivation

4.3.1 Living Conditions: Scarcity and Dispersion

4.3.1.1 Scarcity of housing and basic utilities

IDPs endure precarious living conditions marked by overcrowded tents (Figure 14), erratic utility access (Figures 15–16), and dispersed settlements (Table 3). While water access is relatively higher in Borno, sanitation and electricity remain scarce everywhere. Food insecurity tops reported challenges (Figure 17), exacerbated by income loss and reliance on unstable markets.

Figure 14. Types of Shelter and Accommodation Conditions in IDP Camps

Figure 15. Percentage of IDPs with Access to Basic Utilities.

Figure 16. Comparison of IDPs’ Access to Basic Utilities in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 17. Living Condition Challenges in IDP camps in Borno and Yobe States

4.3.1.2 Camp Dispersions

Figures 18-20 illustrates the distribution of IDP households and clustering patterns within the camps in Borno and Yobe States. The spatial visualization reveals distinct concentrations of displaced populations, with notable clusters around Damaturu in Yobe State and Maiduguri and Jere in Borno State. These clusters reflect the areas of highest displacement density, indicating where humanitarian efforts are most concentrated and where vulnerabilities may be most pronounced. The map also highlights the proximity of IDP camps to major urban centers, suggesting potential advantages for accessing services and economic opportunities, though this may also create challenges related to overcrowding and resource competition.

Figure 18. Spatial Map showing IDPs households and Cluster within IDP camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 19. Spatial Map showing IDP Households within Surveyed Camps in Borno State

Figure 20.Spatial Map showing IDP Households within Surveyed Camps in Borno State

Nearest neighbor analyses reveal household clusters (communities within camps) are spaced nearly 50 meters apart on average—a dispersion driven by ad hoc camp expansion and limited infrastructure (Table 3). The Z-score, which measured the statistical significance of the spatial pattern, was found to be exceptionally high at 147,490.30, providing strong evidence that the distribution of the households in the camps is not random but rather exhibits a clear dispersed spatial arrangement.

Table 4. Nearest neighborhood analysis of IDPs Camps in Borno and Yobe States.

Statistic

Value

Observed mean distance (m)

49.79

Expected mean distance (m)

0.01

Nearest neighbour index

3684.80

Number of points

438.00

Z-Score

147490.30

4.3.1.3 Spatial Analysis of water access in IDP Camps

The water access map of Borno and Yobe IDP camps clearly illustrated disparities, with concentrations of higher water accessibility around Maiduguri contrasting with more limited access in Damaturu (Figure 21). This geographic visualization further reinforces the critical need for equitable distribution of resources, as IDPs in more isolated locations face greater hardships.

Figure 21. Water access map in Borno and Yobe States IDP camps

These findings collectively illustrate the uneven nature of service delivery across the two states and emphasize the need for targeted interventions that address the specific vulnerabilities of IDP households. The geographic dispersion and clustering patterns not only shape access to critical resources but also present logistical challenges that must be accounted for in the planning and implementation of humanitarian aid programs.

4.3.2 Livelihood Collapse and Economic Vulnerability:

4.3.2.1 Income

The analysis of income and employment trends among the IDPs in Borno and Yobe States, reveals significant shifts in livelihood patterns before and after displacement.

Figure 22. Source of IDPs Income Before Displacement

Before displacement, farming and trading sustained 70–80% of households (Figure 22).

Figure 23. Comparison of Sources of Income before Displacement of IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

When disaggregated by state, farming consistently dominated as the major source of income in both Borno and Yobe, though with a higher proportion in Borno (Figure 23). Notable variations were observed in the contribution of artisan work (mostly cap weaving by women) and daily labor, with Borno recording a larger share of respondents engaged in these sectors compared to Yobe, where trading (mainly cow milk hawking) appeared to be a more common economic activity.

After displacement, the economic landscape experienced a marked transformation. While farming remained a significant source of livelihood, its dominance was reduced, reflecting the disrupted access to farmland and agricultural inputs (Figure 24). Daily labor emerged more prominently, indicating a shift towards more precarious and immediate forms of income generation. Family support and humanitarian aid supplemented household incomes, although the latter contributed minimally.

Figure 24. Sources of IDPs Income After Displacement

Figure 25. Comparison of Sources of Income After Displacement of IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

A comparison of post-displacement income sources revealed that daily labor became particularly pronounced in Yobe, surpassing its prevalence in Borno, while farming retained a stronger presence among IDPs in Borno (Figure 25). Family support networks appeared more substantial in Borno, suggesting a greater reliance on social capital in the aftermath of displacement.

The majority of IDPs reported a decline in their financial situation after displacement, with a substantial 70% indicating their circumstances worsened (Figure 26).

Figure 26. Perceived Changes in Financial Situation of IDPs Before and After Displacement

4.3.2.2 Employment

Unemployment affects 90% of IDPs (Figure 27), with men more likely to secure sporadic labor than women (Figure 28), who face caregiving and cultural barriers.

Figure 27. Employment status of IDPs

Figure 28. Employment Status of IDPs by gender

4.3.2.3 Spatial Analysis of Financial Hardship

Spatial analyses pinpoint severe economic hardship clusters in urban camps like Maiduguri (Figure 29), where high IDP density strains resources. This corroborates the IDPs self-reported financial hardship after displacement.

Figure 29. Financial Hardship heatmap in IDP camps in Borno and Yobe States

4.3.3 Food Insecurity: A Spatial Crisis

4.3.3.1 Adequacy and Food Insecurity Hotspots

Over 70% of households “rarely” or “sometimes” eat adequately (Figure 30), relying on markets (Figure 31) rather than consistent aid. Moran’s I tests confirm food insecurity clusters geographically (I = 0.4985, p < 0.001, Table 4), with severe shortages concentrated near Maiduguri and Damaturu (Figures 32–33). These hotspots verify the self-reported data by IDPs on food shortages as their major challenge in displacement.

Figure 30. Household Food Frequency Patterns in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 31. Major Sources of Food in IDP camps an Borno and Yobe States

Table 5. Moran's I Test for Spatial Autocorrelation of IDP Food Insecurity

Statistic

Value

Moran's I

0.4985

Expectation

-0.0023

Variance

0.0008

Standard Deviate (z-score)

18.188

p-value

< 2.2e-16

Figure 32. Food insecurity level among IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 33. Hotspot Analysis Map of Food Insecurity in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

4.3.3.2 Food Security Challenges

When examining the major challenges to food security, availability, affordability, and income constraints emerged as the most significant factors. A majority of respondents identified food availability as a key issue, reflecting possible disruptions in supply chains or insufficient food aid distributions (Figure 34). Affordability also featured prominently, pointing to economic hardships exacerbated by displacement, limited livelihood opportunities, and inflation. Income, unsurprisingly, was the most frequently cited barrier, emphasizing the importance of economic recovery initiatives alongside food assistance programs.

Figure 34. Key Food Security Challenges in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

4.3.4 Healthcare Gaps and Maternal Risks

While most IDPs access clinics or pharmacies (Figure 35), maternal healthcare delays and medicine shortages persist (Figures 36–37). Women prioritize maternal services (Figure 38), yet only 20–30% rate care as “good/fair” (Figure 39), citing access to medication, cost and distance as barriers (Figure 40). Traditional healers remain a fallback, highlighting systemic gaps in formal healthcare provision.

Figure 35. Most Visted Healthcare Facilities by IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 36. Proportion of IDPs Reporting Access to Medical Care in Borno and Yobe States.

Figure 37. Comparison of IDPs Reporting Access to Medical Care across IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 38. Most Needed Healthcare Services Among IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 39. Perceived Quality of Healthcare Access in IDP Camps

Figure 40. Key Healthcare Challenges Faced by IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

4.3.5 Vulnerability and Aid Inequities

The survey conducted on the vulnerability of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in camps across Borno and Yobe States reveals several critical findings about the condition of vulnerable populations, particularly those identified as persons with disabilities (PWDs). The results also highlight the accessibility of tailored support services, the challenges faced by these individuals, and the disparity in their experiences across the two states.

4.3.5.1 Marginalized Groups: Compounding Risks

Persons with disabilities (PWDs) and female-headed households report heightened vulnerability (Figure 41), facing aid shortages and discrimination (gender, ethnic and decision making within camp policy and government) (Figure 42). Health talks and women’s clinics are the most accessible services (Figure 43), while disability support and education programs lag—a critical oversight given PWDs’ disproportionate representation in camps.

Figure 41. Proportion of Vulnerable Persons and Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) in IDP Camps in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 42. Comparison of Challenges Faced by Vulnerable Persons and Persons with Disabilities

Figure 43. Tailored Support Received by Vulnerable Persons and Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) in IDP camps

4.3.5.2 Humanitarian Aid: Intermittent and Incomplete

Though 60–70% of IDPs receive some aid (Figure 44), medical and food assistance dominate (Figures 45–46), with education and livelihood support scarce. Aid frequency peaks around two-year intervals (Figures 47–48), leaving many without sustained support. Yobe’s remote camps face acute delivery gaps, exacerbating inequities between states.

Figure 44. Proportion of IDPs that Received Humanitarian Aid

Figure 45. Types of Humanitarian Aid Received by IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 46. Comparison of Types of Humanitarian Aid Received by IDPs in Borno and Yobe States

Figure 47. Time Since Last Humanitarian Aid Received in IDP Camps

Figure 48. Comparison of Frequency of Humanitarian Aid Received in Borno and Yobe States.

4.3.5.3 Token Systems and Accountability Failures

Focus group discussions (Section 4.7) revealed systemic flaws in aid distribution models. For example, IDPs reported receiving physical tokens from agencies like SEMA and the Nigerian First Lady’s office, which were meant to guarantee access to food and supplies. However, 90% of respondents stated these tokens were not honored, with the participants noting:

“They gave us paper tokens, but later the officials came to tell us, after waiting for over a year, that the offer was cancelled. The other token, we are still holding on to it for two years now with the hope that someday they will honor it.”

4.4 Key Disparities in IDP Camp Conditions

This section presents findings on critical disparities in living conditions, vulnerabilities, and aid effectiveness across internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps. Results highlight how localized challenges—from infrastructure gaps to socio-demographic inequities—shape well-being.

4.4.1 Water Infrastructure and Health Outcomes

Analysis reveals a strong negative correlation (–0.52) between water access and disease frequency (Figure 49). Camps with limited water infrastructure reported higher rates of illness, underscoring the urgency of improving water systems to reduce health risks. Conversely, aid consistency showed no meaningful link to infrastructure quality, suggesting aid delivery is not strategically aligned with camp conditions.

Figure 49. Correlation Matrix water access, disease frequency, and aid consistency

4.4.2 Key Drivers of Vulnerability: Water Access and Economic Instability

A decision tree model (Figure 50) identifies water access as the primary determinant of vulnerability, compounded by unstable daily labor opportunities. Camps lacking reliable water sources and income stability (e.g., informal labor markets) exhibited the highest vulnerability levels, emphasizing the need for integrated water and livelihood programs.

Figure 50. Segmentation Tree showing the influence of water access and income status on vulnerability

4.4.3 Socio-Demographic Disparities in Employment and Food Security

Statistical testing (Figure 51) uncovers significant inequities:

Gender and Employment: Employment opportunities vary sharply by gender (χ² = 20.35, p < 0.01), with women disproportionately excluded from formal work.
Education and Food Security: Higher education correlates with better food access (χ² = 13.85, p = 0.0078), suggesting education empowers households to navigate aid systems.
Location and Healthcare: Camp geography strongly influences healthcare access (χ² = 17.80, p = 0.0068), with remote sites facing systemic neglect.

Figure 51. Chi-Square Test Heatmap

4.5 Root Causes and Consequences of Displacement

This section identifies systemic factors driving displacement hardships and their downstream impacts.

4.5.1 Core Challenges Driving Displacement: Health, Social Vulnerability, and Service Access

Factor analysis consolidates 17 challenges into three dimensions (Table 6, Figure 52):

Health Challenges: Disease prevalence, medication shortages, and high healthcare costs.
Social Vulnerability: Discrimination and chronic aid shortages.
Service Access: Gaps in water, electricity, and shelter.

Table 6. Key Factors Driving IDPs Experiences in Borno and Yobe States Insurgency Camps

Factor

Description

Key Loadings

1. Health-Related Challenges

suggests that healthcare access, affordability, and disease burden are major concerns in the IDP camps

diseases (0.80), healthcare cost (0.85), and distance to health facilities (0.55)

2. Vulnerability & Discrimination

indicates social integration and unequal aid distribution contribute to the vulnerability of displaced persons

discrimination (0.81) and host community relations (0.99)

3. Basic Utilities & Shelter Challenges

Shows access to essential services is a critical issue in IDP camps.

hospital access (0.42), toilet access (0.39), and school access (0.33)

Table 6 shows that Health challenges (Factor 1) having high loadings on diseases, medication access, and cost suggest that healthcare affordability is a major problem. Social vulnerability (Factor 2) with issues like discrimination and aid shortages indicate that displaced persons face barriers beyond basic needs, affecting their ability to integrate into host communities. While Service access (Factor 3) having Challenges related to water, electricity, and shelter highlight infrastructural deficiencies in the camps as major concerns.

Figure 52. Scree Plot of Eigenvalues for Factor Selection

A PCA scatter plot (Figure 53) reveals distinct IDP clusters: one group struggles with utility access, while another faces income instability, illustrating divergent deprivation patterns.

Figure 53. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of Basic Utility Access and Income in IDP Camps

4.6 Predictors of Food Insecurity and Healthcare Barriers

Regression models pinpoint drivers of critical outcomes (Table 7):

Food Insecurity: Strongly linked to unstable income sources (B = 0.65, p < 0.0001) and repeated displacements (B = 1.67, p < 0.0001). Economic precarity amplifies hunger risks.
Healthcare Access: Improved for women (B = 0.66, p = 0.008) and aid recipients (B = 0.81, p = 0.003), highlighting the protective role of gender-specific programs and consistent aid.

Table 7. Predicting Food Insecurity and Healthcare Access among IDPs

Dependent variable: Food Insecurity

Significant Predictors

Coefficient (B)

P-value

Intercept

-0.77

0.034

Income Source

0.65

<0.0001

Multiple Displacements

1.67

<0.0001

Dependent variable: Healthcare Access

Intercept

-0.13

0.873

(Gender)[Female]

0.66

0.008

Humanitarian Aid

0.81

0.003

4.7 Voices from the Ground: Systemic Gaps and Unmet Needs in IDP Camps

This section presents insights from focus group discussions (FGDs) with camp coordinators, community leaders (Bulamas), and State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) officials in Borno and Yobe. The findings reveal systemic inequities and actionable priorities for addressing displacement-related hardships.

4.7.1 Systemic Challenges and Stakeholder Roles

Focus group discussions highlighted five interconnected themes critical to understanding conditions in IDP camps. The most pervasive issue centers on food insecurity and economic precarity, with participants frequently describing shortages of food, failed assistance programs, and a lack of sustainable livelihood opportunities. These challenges perpetuate cycles of dependency, particularly among households led by women or individuals with disabilities.

A second theme, psychological trauma and housing instability, emerged through repeated references to depression, stress, and overcrowded shelters. Participants linked mental health struggles to prolonged displacement, loss of family members, and the absence of safe housing. These narratives often intersected with accounts of healthcare access barriers, where delays in maternal care and shortages of medications disproportionately affected women and children.

Discussions also revealed frustration with inconsistent aid delivery, characterized by unpredictable distribution schedules and a lack of follow-up monitoring. Stakeholders attributed these gaps to logistical hurdles, such as remote camp locations, and weak coordination between NGOs, local leaders, and government agencies. The latter issue was further underscored in discussions about stakeholder coordination deficits, where high NGO turnover and unmet commitments to training programs eroded trust in institutional responses.

The spatial relationships between themes, visualized in an inter-topic distance map (Figure 54), illustrate how psychological trauma overlaps with healthcare challenges, suggesting mental and physical well-being are deeply intertwined. In contrast, stakeholder roles and aid delivery discussions remained distinct, reflecting operational silos that hinder holistic interventions.

Figure 54: Inter-topic Distance Map for LDA Topics of IDPs FGD Thematic analysis.

(Each bubble represents a topic, with size indicating prevalence and distance indicating similarity. The right panel shows the most relevant terms for the selected topic)

4.7.2 Trauma, Grievances, and Neutral Discourse

Sentiment analysis of FGD transcripts revealed a predominantly neutral to slightly negative tone, with participants focusing on factual descriptions of challenges rather than overt emotional expressions (Figure 55). Discussions of psychological trauma exhibited mild negativity (polarity = –0.108) and moderate subjectivity, reflecting undercurrents of distress without explicit blame. For example, one coordinator noted, “Many here have watched their families die—they carry that pain silently.”

Figure 55. Sentiment Polarity of FGD conducted with IDPs in Borno and Yobe States Insurgency Camps.

In contrast, critiques of inconsistent aid delivery maintained a neutral tone (polarity = 0.0), with participants framing these issues as systemic rather than intentional. A SEMA official explained, “most of these camps are officially closed. Government no longer receive humanitarian aid from NGO. Government attentions are now focused on IDP resettlement to their original habitat” Similarly, recommendations for improvement were pragmatic and solution-focused, emphasizing the need for better infrastructure and accountability mechanisms.

A word cloud analysis (Figure 56) starkly visualized the dominance of trauma-related language, with terms like “died,” “child,” and “slaughtered” recurring frequently. The absence of positive terms underscores the pervasiveness of loss and suffering in camp narratives. Geographic comparisons showed minimal differences in tone between Borno and Yobe participants, with both groups adopting neutral, factual language to describe urgent unmet needs.

Figure 56. Negative words cloud of sentiment analysis of FGD in six camps in Borno and Yobe states IDP camps.

CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Discussion

This study’s findings highlight the complex interplay of socio-political, economic, and environmental factors shaping the experiences of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Northeast Nigeria. This discussion contextualizes the findings within existing literature and the broader implications of displacement, insurgency, and the socioeconomic realities of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Nigeria. The findings are interpreted thematically, linking them to Nigeria’s political and social landscape and highlighting the significance of IDPs as a political entity within their respective states. This discussion also underscores the long-term implications of displacement, particularly in terms of livelihood, healthcare, food security, and education.

5.1.1 Demographic and Displacement Dynamics

5.1.1.1 Gender and Family Structure of IDPs

The findings reveal a significant gender disparity among IDPs, with women outnumbering men in most camps across Borno and Yobe States. This aligns with previous research indicating that armed conflict disproportionately affects women, as men are often targeted for recruitment, killed, or forced to flee separately (Cohen & Nordås, 2015). However, the findings in this study diverge from earlier studies by highlighting the political agency of displaced women: 40% of female respondents reported leading community initiatives, such as informal childcare networks, despite systemic exclusion from formal decision-making. This aligns with Haider’s (2022a) assertion that displaced women often fill governance vacuums in fragile states.

From a political perspective, the high number of women-led households within IDP settlements necessitates the inclusion of women’s voices in decision-making processes related to humanitarian aid, resettlement, and post-conflict reconstruction (Ocha, 2020). The lack of gender-sensitive policies in Nigeria’s displacement response weakens the political and economic empowerment of IDPs, making them passive recipients rather than active agents in shaping their futures.

5.1.1.2 The Protracted Nature of Displacement

The majority of IDPs have been displaced for over a decade, particularly in Borno State, highlighting the protracted nature of Nigeria’s displacement crisis. Unlike short-term displacement caused by natural disasters, insurgency-driven displacement often extends indefinitely, leading to the normalization of camp life and the emergence of semi-permanent IDP settlements (Ferris, 2021). This prolonged displacement erodes traditional community structures, disrupts economic activities, and increases dependency on humanitarian aid. However, unlike prior studies emphasizing passivity, our results reveal grassroots resilience: 72% of respondents engaged in small-scale trading or communal farming, challenging narratives of IDPs as mere aid recipients.

Furthermore, the presence of IDPs for extended periods has political implications, as it challenges state governance structures and the allocation of resources. IDPs represent a distinct constituency that can influence local governance, humanitarian policies, and electoral outcomes if properly mobilized. For instance, in Borno State, IDPs have organized advocacy groups to demand inclusion in local resettlement planning (Ajaero & Okeke, 2022). In some cases, IDP leaders have been consulted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) during elections to ensure displaced persons can vote (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre [IDMC], 2021). Recognizing IDPs as political actors is crucial for inclusive governance and long-term stability in conflict-affected areas (Bamidele & Adejumo, 2024).

5.1.2 Socioeconomic Disruptions and Intersectional Vulnerabilities

5.1.2.1 Livelihood and Economic Disruptions

The study revealed collapse of agrarian livelihoods (70–80% pre-displacement vs. 10% post-displacement) due to displacement, with many IDPs shifting from agriculture-based livelihoods to informal labor and humanitarian aid dependency (FAO, 2022). Regression analysis showed that income instability and multiple displacements were significant predictors of food insecurity, reinforcing the argument that economic resilience is key to mitigating the long-term impact of displacement (FAO, 2022). This is corroborated by Maxwell and Fitzpatrick’s (2021) findings in Yemen. However, the 2025 data uniquely highlight intersectional disparities: widowed women with disabilities faced 3x higher food insecurity rates than male-headed households, underscoring the need for targeted interventions (Crenshaw, 2017). Beyond gender, the experiences of vulnerability among IDPs are shaped by intersecting social factors including age, disability, and ethnicity. Elderly IDPs and persons with disabilities often face heightened barriers to accessing aid and healthcare (UNHCR, 2021), while ethnic minority groups report exclusion from camp leadership and participation in host communities (Haider, 2022b). These overlapping vulnerabilities require intersectional policy responses to ensure no subgroup is left behind (Crenshaw, 1991).

5.1.2.2 Food Insecurity: A Political and Economic Issue

Food insecurity remains a persistent challenge, with a significant proportion of IDPs reporting inadequate access to food. The findings showed that IDPs primarily rely on markets rather than humanitarian aid, indicating that despite their displacement, they remain active participants in local economies. However, market dependency in IDP settings raises concerns about affordability and price volatility, especially in conflict-affected areas where supply chains are disrupted (Maxwell & Fitzpatrick, 2021).

This underscores the political dimensions of food security in displacement contexts. Government policies that fail to integrate IDPs into national food security programs effectively alienate them from broader social safety nets. If IDPs are to be recognized as political actors, they must be granted equal access to state-supported food and economic programs.

5.1.3 Healthcare Inequities and Environmental Stressors

5.1.3.1 Inequality in Healthcare Access

Geographic disparities in healthcare access (Borno vs. Yobe) reflect Nigeria’s urban-rural resource divide, a systemic issue exacerbated by displacement (Adebowale et al., 2021). While 60% of IDPs cited distance as a barrier, only 12% attributed delays to insurgency-related insecurity—a stark contrast to 2019 studies where insecurity dominated healthcare narratives (MSF, 2020). This shift suggests improved security in urban hubs like Maiduguri but neglect of peripheral camps. It also highlights the structural inequalities in Nigeria’s healthcare system and the broader political marginalization of displaced populations. The state’s failure to integrate IDPs into national healthcare frameworks reinforces their exclusion from public services.

5.1.4 Political Marginalization and Hybrid Governance

The hybrid governance model led by Bulamas challenges state-centric frameworks, illustrating how traditional leaders fill institutional voids in fragile states (Boege et al., 2023). However, this system risks perpetuating exclusion: only 5% of Bulamas were women, and 0% represented ethnic minorities (FGD transcripts). This contrasts with Ethiopia’s IDP camps, where quota systems enhanced minority representation (IDMC, 2022).

5.1.4.1 The Political Economy of Humanitarian Aid

The findings show that humanitarian aid remains inconsistent, with long intervals between aid distributions. This inefficiency raises concerns about the political economy of humanitarian assistance, where aid is often influenced by geopolitical and donor interests rather than actual needs (de Waal, 2018). The dependence on external donors rather than state-led responses further delegitimizes the Nigerian government’s ability to manage displacement crises.

To assert political agency, IDPs must shift from being passive aid recipients to organized groups demanding structured and sustainable support. This includes advocating for legislation that guarantees continuous aid distribution and the inclusion of IDP representatives in policy discussions.

5.1.5 IDPs as Political Entities: Agency, Exclusion, and Mobilization

The findings of this study provide compelling evidence that IDPs are not merely victims of displacement but political actors whose exclusion from governance structures perpetuates Nigeria’s fragility. Two key results support this argument:

5.1.5.1 Grassroots Governance and Leadership

The hybrid governance model led by Bulamas demonstrates IDPs’ capacity for self-organization. Despite state neglect, Bulamas—elected by IDPs—manage security patrols, mediate disputes, and liaise with external agencies. This mirrors Betts and Collier’s (2017) concept of “refugee-led development,” where displaced populations fill institutional voids. However, the study also reveals limitations:

Only 5% of Bulama roles are held by women, and none by ethnic minorities (FGD transcripts).
80% of IDPs reported no interaction with state officials, highlighting their systemic exclusion from formal governance.

This duality—grassroots agency juxtaposed with political marginalization—positions IDPs as a disenfranchised political constituency demanding recognition.

5.1.5.2. Electoral Exclusion and Democratic Deficits

FGD transcripts revealed frustration with systemic exclusion from electoral processes, emphasizing IDPs’ inability to influence policies that directly affect them. The 95% voter card gap among IDPs exemplifies their erasure from Nigeria’s political landscape. Unlike Colombia, where mobile registration units enabled IDP voting post-2016 (ICG, 2021), Nigeria’s exclusionary policies render IDPs invisible to policymakers. FGD participants articulated this disenfranchisement:

“We have no voter cards. No polling units in our camps, we cannot demand for change”

This exclusion contradicts Nigeria’s constitutional guarantees of universal suffrage and underscores the politicization of displacement, where IDPs are strategically marginalized to avoid accountability.

5.2 CONCLUSIONS

This 2025 survey findings fully address the study’s objectives and significance, offering three critical contributions to Nigeria’s displacement discourse. It confirms that insurgency in Northeast Nigeria has entrenched cycles of displacement, with IDPs facing systemic deprivation in livelihoods, healthcare, and political inclusion. Key findings include:

Empirical Evidence of Insurgency’s Impacts: The results quantify how displacement dismantles livelihoods (90% unemployment), exacerbates food insecurity (Moran’s I = 0.4985), and entrenches gender disparities (12% female secondary enrollment).
Governance Failures and Socio-Economic Inequities: The study exposes systemic neglect, such as the politicization of aid and exclusion of IDPs from electoral processes
Actionable Pathways for Solutions: The hybrid governance model led by Bulamas, demonstrate how community-driven strategies can mitigate inefficiencies.

In conclusion, this study bridges the gap between academic research and pragmatic policy-making. By centering IDPs as active agents rather than passive victims, it charts a path toward inclusive governance and sustainable recovery in Nigeria’s turbulent landscape. While the focus on formal camps limits generalizability, the mixed-methods approach provides a robust foundation for policy reforms.

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations propose actionable interventions based on the study's findings and stakeholder insights. These actions aim to guide policymakers, humanitarian actors, and development partners toward sustainable solutions for displacement in Northeast Nigeria.

1. Livelihoods and Economic Resilience

Integrate IDPs into local labor markets through vocational training and skills development programs, especially in agriculture, tailoring, crafts, and digital skills (ILO, 2021).
Provide transitional cash assistance tied to specific reintegration milestones to reduce dependence on aid and stimulate local economies.
Expand access to microcredit or livelihood starter packs, particularly for widowed women and persons with disabilities, to promote economic inclusion.
Strengthen community cooperatives and informal trade networks among IDPs to boost self-reliance and communal resilience.

2. Healthcare Access and Psychosocial Support

Improve infrastructure in under-served camps by constructing or upgrading maternal and child health clinics, with adequate drugs and trained personnel.
Integrate IDPs into the national healthcare system by issuing health ID cards and linking them to local Primary Healthcare Centers (PHCs).
Prioritize psychosocial support services, including trauma counseling and mental health awareness campaigns, especially for those affected by prolonged displacement or violence.
Provide mobile clinics for hard-to-reach camps and informal settlements.

3. Governance and Political Inclusion

Recognize IDPs as political stakeholders by ensuring access to voter registration, national ID cards, and inclusion in local decision-making structures (Ajaero & Okeke, 2022).
Strengthen coordination between State Emergency Management Agencies (SEMAs), NEMA, NGOs, and IDP camp leadership for effective service delivery and monitoring.
Develop a National IDP Integration Policy focused on long-term resettlement, legal protections, and local integration or safe return.
Encourage the participation of IDP women and youth leaders in governance forums and humanitarian program design.

4. Food Security and Basic Services

Expand targeted food assistance for vulnerable groups and increase the frequency and diversity of aid distribution across all camps.
Link food aid with cash-for-work programs that empower IDPs while building camp infrastructure (e.g., sanitation, roads).
Upgrade basic utilities infrastructure (toilets, water systems, solar electricity) to address disease outbreaks and overcrowding.
Promote kitchen gardening and urban agriculture programs in IDP camps to supplement food supplies and improve nutrition.

5. Data, Technology, and Monitoring

Implement digital tracking tools (e.g., blockchain) to monitor aid delivery and minimize corruption or diversion (UNDP, 2022).
Maintain updated camp-level data dashboards on IDP needs, vulnerability status, and service access to improve responsiveness.
Train camp leaders in data collection and reporting, empowering them to advocate with evidence.

6. Environmental Resilience and Climate Adaptation

Launch climate-resilient agriculture programs for displaced farmers returning home, including drought-resistant seeds and irrigation tools.
Invest in reforestation and land restoration projects to mitigate desertification in displacement-prone areas of Yobe and Borno.
Include climate risk assessment in IDP relocation or resettlement planning to avoid areas prone to floods or erosion.

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APPENDICES

Plate 1. Ethical Approval for the Displacement Impact Survey Borno State

Plate 2. Ethical Approval for the Displacement Impact Survey Yobe State.

Yobe State approved is granted by official stamping of request letter as shown in Plate 2.

Plate 3. Enumerator and IDPs in Madinatu Camp Jere LGA Borno State

Plate 4. Enumerator and IDPs in Muna Elbadawi Camp in Maiduguri LGA Borno State

Plate 5. Survey supervisors at University of Maiduguri, Borno State

Plate 6. Enumerator and IDP in Abbari YBC camp in Damaturu LGA Yobe State

Plate 7. Enumerator and IDPs in Abbari YBC camp in Damaturu LGA Yobe State

Plate 8. Enumerator and IDP in Kasaisa Camp in Damaturu LGA Yobe State

Plate 9. Enumerator and IDP in Kasaisa Camp in Damaturu LGA Yobe State During Data Collection

Plate 10. Enumerator and IDP in Elmiskin Camp in Jere LGA Borno State

Plate 11. Enumerator and IDPs in Elmiskin Camp in Jere LGA Borno State

Plate 12. Enumerator and IDP in Custom House IDP in Maiduguri LGA Borno State

Plate 13. Focus Group Discussion with IDPs Stakeholders at Muna Elbadawi Camp in Borno State

Plate 14. Focus Group Discussion with IDPs Stakeholders at Elmiskin Camp in Borno State

Plate 15. Focus Group Discussion with IDPs Stakeholders at Kasaisa Camp in Yobe State

Plate 16. Focus Group Discussion with IDPs Stakeholders at Abujan Maimala Camp in Yobe State

Plate 17. Focus Group Discussion with IDPs Stakeholders at Abbari YBC Camp in Yobe State

Chinedu Ezeife